What if our government did... nothing?

I started doing some research for a planned piece on the fiscal impact of consumers shifting from traditional tobacco products to vaping... and as I looked at some of the numbers I found myself repeatedly getting distracted by one question. What if the our government did nothing to restrict vaping? What it it treated electronic-cigarettes just like any other consumer product and let the public shift from smoking to vaping unhindered.

Currently, the average smoker spends more than $1800 a year on cigarettes. About half of that goes straight to taxes (56.6% according to Phillip Morris, but we're going to stick with the simpler 50% for the sake of ease) and the other half goes into the economy... well, sort of. In reality only about $135 of it actually goes back into the local economy, the other $765, give or take, finds it's way into the coffers of big tobaco and their share holders.

Okay, so for each smoker that makes the switch our government would loose about $900 in excise tax revenue every year. This is bad right? except that for each former smoker our economy also gains about three times that amount... or, rather, it sheds about $2700 a year in costs ... direct medical costs and lost productivity costs.

And that $1800 a year that the average smoker spends? imagine that these dollars are spent on local goods and services... like, say, independent vape vendors. Imagine that each of the local vendors who earned those dollars then re-spends that money on more local goods and services. In short, the 'Local Multiplier Effect' results in each former smoker spending $1800 per year with an effective value to the economy of potentially $3,270 . That's $3,270 per individual that is fueling the economy and empowering business… And not just local business, small, private businesses, "The American Dream" businesses. "Shrinking the Gap Between the 1% and the 99%" businesses. "The Gears of the Nation" businesses.

In the long term, if every smoker switched to vaping.... say goodbye to $32 billion in excise tax revenue annually... and say hello to an economic boost as consumers spend that extra $32 billion a year.

Yes, there would be losers, Tobacco growers and cigarette manufacturers would be hit especially hard, nicotine replacement products would all but disappear, and the medical industry would loose an estimated $44.3 billion a year as smoking related medical needs evaporate. but I submit to you that the gains, the gains to our families, our local businesses, our communities... the gains to our economy, would be greater than the losses if our government would just do nothing to restrict electronic cigarettes.